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Tamale City vs Asante Kotoko — Premier League 2019

Tamale City
Tamale City
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Asante Kotoko
Asante Kotoko
I. Babamu 86'
I. Nyaabila 84' (OG)
1/11/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 12Aliu Mahama Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Tamale City47%
×Draw28%
Asante Kotoko25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tamale City
1.34
Asante Kotoko
0.90

Tamale City creates 49% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 110 away

creates per match

Tamale City
1.82
Asante Kotoko
0.85

allows per match

Tamale City
0.94
Asante Kotoko
0.87

finishing

Tamale City+0.00on par
Asante Kotoko+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tamale City ↓

Asante Kotoko →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Tamale City or draw
75%
Tamale City or Asante Kotoko
72%
Draw or Asante Kotoko
53%

Winning margin

Tamale City wins by 2+
22%
Asante Kotoko wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Tamale City 1+ goals
74%
Tamale City 2+ goals
39%
Tamale City 3+ goals
15%
Asante Kotoko 1+ goals
59%
Asante Kotoko 2+ goals
23%
Asante Kotoko 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Tamale City (draw refunded)
65%
Asante Kotoko (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tamale City at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

Asante Kotoko away — creates 0.85, concedes 0.87 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tamale City attack 1.82 + Asante Kotoko defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.34

Asante Kotoko attack 0.85 + Tamale City defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Tamale City scores more
47%
level
28%
Asante Kotoko scores more
25%

Tamale City at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Tamale City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

84'
I. NyaabilaOwn goal
86'
I. Babamu

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Tamale City 1–1 Asante Kotoko

Tamale City and Asante Kotoko drew 1-1 in Premier League on January 11, 2023.

Goals: I. Nyaabila (84' o.g.), I. Babamu (86').

The match was played at Aliu Mahama Sports Stadium in Tamale.