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Asante Kotoko vs Tamale City — Premier League 2019

Asante Kotoko
Asante Kotoko
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Tamale City
Tamale City
R. Dwamena 36'
M. Yahaya 41'
4/30/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 29Baba Yara Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Asante Kotoko57%
×Draw28%
Tamale City15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Asante Kotoko
1.35
Tamale City
0.53

Asante Kotoko creates 155% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 17 away

creates per match

Asante Kotoko
1.47
Tamale City
0.41

allows per match

Asante Kotoko
0.65
Tamale City
1.24

finishing

Asante Kotoko+0.00on par
Tamale City+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Asante Kotoko ↓

Tamale City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Asante Kotoko or draw
85%
Asante Kotoko or Tamale City
72%
Draw or Tamale City
43%

Winning margin

Asante Kotoko wins by 2+
28%
Tamale City wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Asante Kotoko 1+ goals
74%
Asante Kotoko 2+ goals
39%
Asante Kotoko 3+ goals
15%
Tamale City 1+ goals
41%
Tamale City 2+ goals
10%
Tamale City 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Asante Kotoko (draw refunded)
80%
Tamale City (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Asante Kotoko at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.65 · 108 matches

Tamale City away — creates 0.41, concedes 1.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Asante Kotoko attack 1.47 + Tamale City defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.35

Tamale City attack 0.41 + Asante Kotoko defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Asante Kotoko scores more
57%
level
28%
Tamale City scores more
15%

Asante Kotoko at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Asante Kotoko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'
R. Dwamena
41'
M. Yahaya
55'
R. Nortey← R. Nortey
55'
M. Yahaya
70'
S. Safo-Taylor← S. Safo-Taylor
70'
M. Medeiros← M. Medeiros
81'
G. Abban← G. Abban
81'
R. Ali← R. Ali
82'
C. Owusu← C. Owusu
90+5'
M. Bukari← M. Bukari
90+10'
R. Boadu

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Asante Kotoko 1–1 Tamale City

Asante Kotoko and Tamale City drew 1-1 in Premier League on April 30, 2023.

Goals: R. Dwamena (36'), M. Yahaya (41').

The match was played at Baba Yara Stadium in Kumasi.