Tamale City 2–1 Aduana Stars: Result & Stats

Tamale City

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Aduana Stars

I. Mensah 85'

S. Eduku 73'

B. Adjei 53'

11/20/2022

Premier League · Round 8Aliu Mahama Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Tamale City54%

×Draw26%

Aduana Stars20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tamale CityExpected goals in this matchAduana Stars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

0.84

Tamale City

1.54

Aduana Stars

0.84

Tamale City creates 83% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 110 away

1.82

creates per match

0.75

0.94

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Tamale City

1.82

Aduana Stars

0.75

allows per match

Tamale City

0.94

Aduana Stars

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tamale City+0.00on par

Aduana Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tamale City ↓

Aduana Stars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Tamale City or draw

80%

Tamale City or Aduana Stars

74%

Draw or Aduana Stars

46%

Winning margin

Tamale City wins by 2+

28%

Aduana Stars wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Tamale City 1+ goals

79%

Tamale City 2+ goals

45%

Tamale City 3+ goals

20%

Aduana Stars 1+ goals

57%

Aduana Stars 2+ goals

21%

Aduana Stars 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Tamale City (draw refunded)

72%

Aduana Stars (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tamale City at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

Aduana Stars away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.25 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tamale City attack 1.82 + Aduana Stars defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.54

Aduana Stars attack 0.75 + Tamale City defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Tamale City scores more

54%

level

26%

Aduana Stars scores more

20%

Tamale City at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Tamale City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

53'

B. Adjei

60'

B. Asare← B. Asare

60'

S. Eduku← S. Eduku

73'

S. Eduku

85'

I. Mensah

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff