Aduana Stars 1–0 Tamale City: Result & Stats

Aduana Stars

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Tamale City

I. Mintah 90+5'

4/2/2023

Premier League · Round 25Agyeman Badu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Aduana Stars57%

×Draw29%

Tamale City14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Aduana StarsExpected goals in this matchTamale City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.51

Aduana Stars

1.33

Tamale City

0.51

Aduana Stars creates 161% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 17 away

1.42

creates per match

0.41

0.60

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Aduana Stars

1.42

Tamale City

0.41

allows per match

Aduana Stars

0.60

Tamale City

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aduana Stars+0.00on par

Tamale City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No71
Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aduana Stars ↓

Tamale City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–18%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–021%

1–111%

1–23%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Aduana Stars or draw

86%

Aduana Stars or Tamale City

71%

Draw or Tamale City

43%

Winning margin

Aduana Stars wins by 2+

28%

Tamale City wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Aduana Stars 1+ goals

74%

Aduana Stars 2+ goals

38%

Aduana Stars 3+ goals

15%

Tamale City 1+ goals

40%

Tamale City 2+ goals

9%

Tamale City 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Aduana Stars (draw refunded)

80%

Tamale City (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

19%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aduana Stars at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.60 · 109 matches

Tamale City away — creates 0.41, concedes 1.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aduana Stars attack 1.42 + Tamale City defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.33

Tamale City attack 0.41 + Aduana Stars defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Aduana Stars scores more

57%

level

29%

Tamale City scores more

14%

Aduana Stars at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Aduana Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

90+5'

I. Mintah

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff