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Tállya vs Mezőkövesd II — NB III - Northeast 2019

Tállya
Tállya
FT
2 – 1
Mezőkövesd II
Mezőkövesd II
3/14/2021NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 24Tállyai Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Tállya55%
×Draw21%
Mezőkövesd II24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tállya
2.10
Mezőkövesd II
1.31

Tállya creates 60% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 19 away

creates per match

Tállya
1.04
Mezőkövesd II
0.89

allows per match

Tállya
1.74
Mezőkövesd II
3.16

finishing

Tállya+0.00on par
Mezőkövesd II+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tállya ↓

Mezőkövesd II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Tállya or draw
76%
Tállya or Mezőkövesd II
79%
Draw or Mezőkövesd II
45%

Winning margin

Tállya wins by 2+
33%
Mezőkövesd II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Tállya 1+ goals
88%
Tállya 2+ goals
62%
Tállya 3+ goals
35%
Mezőkövesd II 1+ goals
73%
Mezőkövesd II 2+ goals
38%
Mezőkövesd II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Tállya (draw refunded)
70%
Mezőkövesd II (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tállya at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.74 · 46 matches

Mezőkövesd II away — creates 0.89, concedes 3.16 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tállya attack 1.04 + Mezőkövesd II defence 3.16 → ÷2 → 2.10

Mezőkövesd II attack 0.89 + Tállya defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Tállya scores more
55%
level
21%
Mezőkövesd II scores more
24%

Tállya at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Tállya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Northeast: Tállya 2–1 Mezőkövesd II

Tállya beat Mezőkövesd II 2-1 in NB III - Northeast on March 14, 2021.

The match was played at Tállyai Sporttelep in Tállya.