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Mezőkövesd II vs Tállya — NB III - Northeast 2019

Mezőkövesd II
Mezőkövesd II
FT
2 – 3
Tállya
Tállya
8/23/2020NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 5Városi Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Mezőkövesd II42%
×Draw22%
Tállya35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mezőkövesd II
1.84
Tállya
1.67

Mezőkövesd II creates 10% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 47 away

creates per match

Mezőkövesd II
1.37
Tállya
1.09

allows per match

Mezőkövesd II
2.26
Tállya
2.32

finishing

Mezőkövesd II+0.00on par
Tállya+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mezőkövesd II ↓

Tállya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Mezőkövesd II or draw
65%
Mezőkövesd II or Tállya
78%
Draw or Tállya
58%

Winning margin

Mezőkövesd II wins by 2+
23%
Tállya wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Mezőkövesd II 1+ goals
84%
Mezőkövesd II 2+ goals
55%
Mezőkövesd II 3+ goals
28%
Tállya 1+ goals
81%
Tállya 2+ goals
50%
Tállya 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Mezőkövesd II (draw refunded)
54%
Tállya (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mezőkövesd II at home — creates 1.37, concedes 2.26 · 19 matches

Tállya away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.32 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mezőkövesd II attack 1.37 + Tállya defence 2.32 → ÷2 → 1.84

Tállya attack 1.09 + Mezőkövesd II defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Mezőkövesd II scores more
42%
level
22%
Tállya scores more
35%

Mezőkövesd II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Mezőkövesd II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mezőkövesd II vs Tállya

Tállya beat Mezőkövesd II 3-2 in NB III - Northeast on August 23, 2020.

The match was played at Városi Stadion in Mezőkövesd.