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Tallinna Kalev vs Nõmme United — Meistriliiga 2026

Tallinna Kalev
Tallinna Kalev
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Nõmme United
Nõmme United
10/26/2024MeistriliigaMeistriliiga · Round 34Kadrioru staadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Tallinna Kalev40%
×Draw24%
Nõmme United36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tallinna Kalev
1.63
Nõmme United
1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 105 home / 28 away

creates per match

Tallinna Kalev
1.00
Nõmme United
0.93

allows per match

Tallinna Kalev
2.14
Nõmme United
2.25

finishing

Tallinna Kalev+0.00on par
Nõmme United+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tallinna Kalev ↓

Nõmme United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Tallinna Kalev or draw
64%
Tallinna Kalev or Nõmme United
76%
Draw or Nõmme United
60%

Winning margin

Tallinna Kalev wins by 2+
20%
Nõmme United wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Tallinna Kalev 1+ goals
80%
Tallinna Kalev 2+ goals
48%
Tallinna Kalev 3+ goals
22%
Nõmme United 1+ goals
79%
Nõmme United 2+ goals
45%
Nõmme United 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Tallinna Kalev (draw refunded)
53%
Nõmme United (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tallinna Kalev at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.14 · 105 matches

Nõmme United away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.25 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tallinna Kalev attack 1.00 + Nõmme United defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.63

Nõmme United attack 0.93 + Tallinna Kalev defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Tallinna Kalev scores more
40%
level
24%
Nõmme United scores more
36%

Tallinna Kalev at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Tallinna Kalev will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Meistriliiga: Tallinna Kalev 1–0 Nõmme United

Tallinna Kalev beat Nõmme United 1-0 in Meistriliiga on October 26, 2024.

The match was played at Kadrioru staadion in Tallinn.