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Tallinna Kalev vs Nõmme United — Cup 2020

Tallinna Kalev
Tallinna Kalevadvanced
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Nõmme United
Nõmme United
11/26/2023CupCup · Round of 16Rapla Kunstmurustaadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Tallinna Kalev79%
×Draw11%
Nõmme United10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tallinna Kalev
5.25
Nõmme United
2.06

Tallinna Kalev creates 155% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

creates per match

Tallinna Kalev
8.00
Nõmme United
3.00

allows per match

Tallinna Kalev
1.13
Nõmme United
2.50

finishing

Tallinna Kalev+0.00on par
Nõmme United+0.00on par

Total goals

97%Over
  • Over97
  • Under3

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

87%Yes
  • Yes87
  • No13

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tallinna Kalev ↓

Nõmme United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–10%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–00%
1–11%
1–21%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–16%
4–26%
4–34%
4–42%

Most likely 4–1 (6%) · grid covers 52% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
99%1%2.5
97%3%3.5
91%9%4.5
80%20%

Double chance

Tallinna Kalev or draw
90%
Tallinna Kalev or Nõmme United
89%
Draw or Nõmme United
21%

Winning margin

Tallinna Kalev wins by 2+
64%
Nõmme United wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Tallinna Kalev 1+ goals
99%
Tallinna Kalev 2+ goals
95%
Tallinna Kalev 3+ goals
85%
Nõmme United 1+ goals
87%
Nõmme United 2+ goals
61%
Nõmme United 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Tallinna Kalev (draw refunded)
88%
Nõmme United (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
86%
Both score & under 3
1%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tallinna Kalev at home — creates 8.00, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

Nõmme United away — creates 3.00, concedes 2.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tallinna Kalev attack 8.00 + Nõmme United defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 5.25

Nõmme United attack 3.00 + Tallinna Kalev defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Tallinna Kalev scores more
79%
level
11%
Nõmme United scores more
10%

Tallinna Kalev at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Tallinna Kalev will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tallinna Kalev vs Nõmme United

Tallinna Kalev beat Nõmme United 3-1 in Cup on November 26, 2023.

The match was played at Rapla Kunstmurustaadion in Rapla.