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Tallinding United vs GPA — GFA League 2020

Tallinding United
Tallinding United
FT
1 – 2
GPA
GPA
3/6/2021GFA LeagueGFA League · Round 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Tallinding United25%
×Draw35%
GPA40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tallinding United
0.66
GPA
0.91

GPA creates 38% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 44 away

creates per match

Tallinding United
0.38
GPA
0.89

allows per match

Tallinding United
0.92
GPA
0.93

finishing

Tallinding United+0.00on par
GPA+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Under
  • Under79
  • Over21

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tallinding United ↓

GPA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–021%
0–119%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–05%
2–14%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (21%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
79%21%1.5
47%53%2.5
21%79%3.5
7%93%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Tallinding United or draw
60%
Tallinding United or GPA
65%
Draw or GPA
75%

Winning margin

Tallinding United wins by 2+
7%
GPA wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Tallinding United 1+ goals
48%
Tallinding United 2+ goals
14%
Tallinding United 3+ goals
3%
GPA 1+ goals
60%
GPA 2+ goals
23%
GPA 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Tallinding United (draw refunded)
39%
GPA (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
16%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tallinding United at home — creates 0.38, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

GPA away — creates 0.89, concedes 0.93 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tallinding United attack 0.38 + GPA defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.66

GPA attack 0.89 + Tallinding United defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Tallinding United scores more
25%
level
35%
GPA scores more
40%

GPA at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "GPA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

GFA League: Tallinding United 1–2 GPA

GPA beat Tallinding United 2-1 in GFA League on March 6, 2021.