GPA 2–0 Tallinding United: Result & Stats

GPA

FT

2 – 0

Tallinding United

6/7/2021

GFA League · Round 18

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

GPA41%

×Draw31%

Tallinding United28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GPAExpected goals in this matchTallinding United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

0.83

GPA

1.08

Tallinding United

0.83

GPA creates 30% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 14 away

0.95

creates per match

0.93

0.74

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

GPA

0.95

Tallinding United

0.93

allows per match

GPA

0.74

Tallinding United

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

GPA+0.00on par

Tallinding United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GPA ↓

Tallinding United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

GPA or draw

72%

GPA or Tallinding United

69%

Draw or Tallinding United

59%

Winning margin

GPA wins by 2+

17%

Tallinding United wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

GPA 1+ goals

66%

GPA 2+ goals

29%

GPA 3+ goals

10%

Tallinding United 1+ goals

56%

Tallinding United 2+ goals

20%

Tallinding United 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

GPA (draw refunded)

60%

Tallinding United (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GPA at home — creates 0.95, concedes 0.74 · 42 matches

Tallinding United away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.21 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GPA attack 0.95 + Tallinding United defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.08

Tallinding United attack 0.93 + GPA defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

GPA scores more

41%

level

31%

Tallinding United scores more

28%

GPA at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "GPA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff