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Tallinding United vs Banjul — GFA League 2020

Tallinding United
Tallinding United
FT
0 – 0
Banjul
Banjul
7/24/2021GFA LeagueGFA League · Round 25

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Tallinding United28%
×Draw36%
Banjul35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tallinding United
0.71
Banjul
0.83

Banjul creates 17% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 73 away

creates per match

Tallinding United
0.38
Banjul
0.75

allows per match

Tallinding United
0.92
Banjul
1.04

finishing

Tallinding United+0.00on par
Banjul+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Under
  • Under80
  • Over20

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tallinding United ↓

Banjul →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–021%
0–118%
0–27%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–05%
2–14%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (21%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
79%21%1.5
46%54%2.5
20%80%3.5
7%93%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Tallinding United or draw
65%
Tallinding United or Banjul
64%
Draw or Banjul
72%

Winning margin

Tallinding United wins by 2+
8%
Banjul wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Tallinding United 1+ goals
51%
Tallinding United 2+ goals
16%
Tallinding United 3+ goals
4%
Banjul 1+ goals
56%
Banjul 2+ goals
20%
Banjul 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Tallinding United (draw refunded)
45%
Banjul (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
16%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tallinding United at home — creates 0.38, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

Banjul away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.04 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tallinding United attack 0.38 + Banjul defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.71

Banjul attack 0.75 + Tallinding United defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Tallinding United scores more
28%
level
36%
Banjul scores more
35%

Banjul at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Banjul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tallinding United vs Banjul

Tallinding United and Banjul drew 0-0 in GFA League on July 24, 2021.