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Banjul vs Tallinding United — GFA League 2020

Banjul
Banjul
FT
1 – 0
Tallinding United
Tallinding United
4/11/2021GFA LeagueGFA League · Round 13

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Banjul36%
×Draw32%
Tallinding United32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Banjul
0.97
Tallinding United
0.89

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 73 home / 14 away

creates per match

Banjul
0.73
Tallinding United
0.93

allows per match

Banjul
0.84
Tallinding United
1.21

finishing

Banjul+0.00on par
Tallinding United+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Banjul ↓

Tallinding United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Banjul or draw
68%
Banjul or Tallinding United
68%
Draw or Tallinding United
64%

Winning margin

Banjul wins by 2+
13%
Tallinding United wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Banjul 1+ goals
62%
Banjul 2+ goals
25%
Banjul 3+ goals
7%
Tallinding United 1+ goals
59%
Tallinding United 2+ goals
22%
Tallinding United 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Banjul (draw refunded)
53%
Tallinding United (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Banjul at home — creates 0.73, concedes 0.84 · 73 matches

Tallinding United away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.21 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Banjul attack 0.73 + Tallinding United defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.97

Tallinding United attack 0.93 + Banjul defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Banjul scores more
36%
level
32%
Tallinding United scores more
32%

Banjul at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Banjul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Banjul vs Tallinding United

Banjul beat Tallinding United 1-0 in GFA League on April 11, 2021.