Talleres Remedios 1–1 Deportivo Merlo

Talleres Remedios

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Deportivo Merlo

A. Barreiro 11'

D. Aguirre 82'

9/21/2022

Primera B Metropolitana · Apertura - 15Estadio Pablo Comelli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Talleres Remedios42%

×Draw30%

Deportivo Merlo29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Talleres RemediosExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Merlo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

0.92

Talleres Remedios

1.17

Deportivo Merlo

0.92

Talleres Remedios creates 27% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 104 away

1.08

creates per match

0.92

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Talleres Remedios

1.08

Deportivo Merlo

0.92

allows per match

Talleres Remedios

0.92

Deportivo Merlo

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Talleres Remedios+0.00on par

Deportivo Merlo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Talleres Remedios ↓

Deportivo Merlo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Talleres Remedios or draw

71%

Talleres Remedios or Deportivo Merlo

70%

Draw or Deportivo Merlo

58%

Winning margin

Talleres Remedios wins by 2+

18%

Deportivo Merlo wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Talleres Remedios 1+ goals

69%

Talleres Remedios 2+ goals

33%

Talleres Remedios 3+ goals

11%

Deportivo Merlo 1+ goals

60%

Deportivo Merlo 2+ goals

23%

Deportivo Merlo 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Talleres Remedios (draw refunded)

59%

Deportivo Merlo (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Talleres Remedios at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.92 · 99 matches

Deportivo Merlo away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.25 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Talleres Remedios attack 1.08 + Deportivo Merlo defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.17

Deportivo Merlo attack 0.92 + Talleres Remedios defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Talleres Remedios scores more

42%

level

30%

Deportivo Merlo scores more

29%

Talleres Remedios at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Talleres Remedios will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

A. Barreiro

46'

M. Macchione← G. García

46'

D. Aguirre← F. González

62'

G. Arce← O. Maldonado

65'

L. Monge← A. Barreiro

65'

D. Guzmán← D. Vergara

70'

J. Lazaneo← M. Argüello

78'

I. Ciavarelli← P. Romero

82'

D. Aguirre

Talleres

Deportivo

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: N. D'Angelo

65'▲L. Monge←▼A. Barreiro

65'▲D. Guzmán←▼D. Vergara

78'▲I. Ciavarelli←▼P. Romero

Talleres Remedios substitutes

MongeGuzmánCiavarelli

Manager: G. Manzini

46'▲M. Macchione←▼G. García

46'▲D. Aguirre←▼F. González

62'▲G. Arce←▼O. Maldonado

70'▲J. Lazaneo←▼M. Argüello

Deportivo Merlo substitutes

MacchioneAguirreArceLazaneo