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Deportivo Merlo vs Talleres Remedios — Primera B Metropolitana 2026

Deportivo Merlo
Deportivo Merlo
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Talleres Remedios
Talleres Remedios
10/3/2023Primera B MetropolitanaPrimera B Metropolitana · Clausura - 16Estadio José Manuel Moreno

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Deportivo Merlo33%
×Draw31%
Talleres Remedios36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Merlo
0.97
Talleres Remedios
1.02

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 103 home / 99 away

creates per match

Deportivo Merlo
1.00
Talleres Remedios
0.97

allows per match

Deportivo Merlo
1.06
Talleres Remedios
0.94

finishing

Deportivo Merlo+0.00on par
Talleres Remedios+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Merlo ↓

Talleres Remedios →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Deportivo Merlo or draw
64%
Deportivo Merlo or Talleres Remedios
69%
Draw or Talleres Remedios
67%

Winning margin

Deportivo Merlo wins by 2+
12%
Talleres Remedios wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Deportivo Merlo 1+ goals
62%
Deportivo Merlo 2+ goals
25%
Deportivo Merlo 3+ goals
7%
Talleres Remedios 1+ goals
64%
Talleres Remedios 2+ goals
27%
Talleres Remedios 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Merlo (draw refunded)
48%
Talleres Remedios (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Merlo at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.06 · 103 matches

Talleres Remedios away — creates 0.97, concedes 0.94 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Merlo attack 1.00 + Talleres Remedios defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.97

Talleres Remedios attack 0.97 + Deportivo Merlo defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Deportivo Merlo scores more
33%
level
31%
Talleres Remedios scores more
36%

Talleres Remedios at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Talleres Remedios will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo Merlo vs Talleres Remedios

Deportivo Merlo and Talleres Remedios drew 0-0 in Primera B Metropolitana on October 3, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio José Manuel Moreno in Parque San Martín, Provincia de Buenos Aires.