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Talleres Remedios vs CA Estudiantes — Primera Nacional 2026

Talleres Remedios
Talleres Remedios
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
CA Estudiantes
CA Estudiantes
4/20/2025Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Round 11Estadio de Talleres de Remedios de Escalada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Talleres Remedios33%
×Draw33%
CA Estudiantes34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Talleres Remedios
0.88
CA Estudiantes
0.89

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 36 home / 118 away

creates per match

Talleres Remedios
0.75
CA Estudiantes
0.81

allows per match

Talleres Remedios
0.97
CA Estudiantes
1.01

finishing

Talleres Remedios+0.00on par
CA Estudiantes+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Talleres Remedios ↓

CA Estudiantes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–115%
0–27%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Talleres Remedios or draw
66%
Talleres Remedios or CA Estudiantes
67%
Draw or CA Estudiantes
67%

Winning margin

Talleres Remedios wins by 2+
11%
CA Estudiantes wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Talleres Remedios 1+ goals
59%
Talleres Remedios 2+ goals
22%
Talleres Remedios 3+ goals
6%
CA Estudiantes 1+ goals
59%
CA Estudiantes 2+ goals
22%
CA Estudiantes 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Talleres Remedios (draw refunded)
50%
CA Estudiantes (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Talleres Remedios at home — creates 0.75, concedes 0.97 · 36 matches

CA Estudiantes away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.01 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Talleres Remedios attack 0.75 + CA Estudiantes defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.88

CA Estudiantes attack 0.81 + Talleres Remedios defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

Talleres Remedios scores more
33%
level
33%
CA Estudiantes scores more
34%

CA Estudiantes at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "CA Estudiantes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera Nacional: Talleres Remedios 0–1 CA Estudiantes

CA Estudiantes beat Talleres Remedios 1-0 in Primera Nacional on April 20, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio de Talleres de Remedios de Escalada in Buenos Aires.