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Talleres Cordoba vs Rosario Central — Liga Profesional Argentina 2018

Talleres Cordoba
Talleres Cordoba
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Rosario Central
Rosario Central
3/11/2025Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 1st Phase - 9Estadio Mario Alberto Kempes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Talleres Cordoba39%
×Draw33%
Rosario Central27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Talleres Cordoba
0.97
Rosario Central
0.76

Talleres Cordoba creates 28% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

creates per match

Talleres Cordoba
0.85
Rosario Central
0.93

allows per match

Talleres Cordoba
0.59
Rosario Central
1.08

finishing

Talleres Cordoba-0.35scores less
Rosario Central-0.30scores less

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Talleres Cordoba ↓

Rosario Central →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
52%48%2.5
25%75%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Talleres Cordoba or draw
73%
Talleres Cordoba or Rosario Central
67%
Draw or Rosario Central
61%

Winning margin

Talleres Cordoba wins by 2+
15%
Rosario Central wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Talleres Cordoba 1+ goals
62%
Talleres Cordoba 2+ goals
25%
Talleres Cordoba 3+ goals
7%
Rosario Central 1+ goals
53%
Rosario Central 2+ goals
18%
Rosario Central 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Talleres Cordoba (draw refunded)
59%
Rosario Central (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Talleres Cordoba at home — creates 0.85, concedes 0.59 · 8 matches

Rosario Central away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.08 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Talleres Cordoba attack 0.85 + Rosario Central defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.97

Rosario Central attack 0.93 + Talleres Cordoba defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Talleres Cordoba scores more
39%
level
33%
Rosario Central scores more
27%

Talleres Cordoba at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Talleres Cordoba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Profesional Argentina: Talleres Cordoba 0–0 Rosario Central

Talleres Cordoba and Rosario Central drew 0-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on March 11, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Mario Alberto Kempes in Cordoba.