Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Rosario Central vs Talleres Cordoba — Liga Profesional Argentina 2018

Rosario Central
Rosario Central
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Talleres Cordoba
Talleres Cordoba
9/15/2024Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 14Estadio Gigante de Arroyito

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 122+ matches

Rosario Central43%
×Draw28%
Talleres Cordoba29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rosario Central
1.29
Talleres Cordoba
1.02

Rosario Central creates 26% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 122 away

creates per match

Rosario Central
1.43
Talleres Cordoba
1.09

allows per match

Rosario Central
0.96
Talleres Cordoba
1.16

finishing

Rosario Central+0.00on par
Talleres Cordoba+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rosario Central ↓

Talleres Cordoba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Rosario Central or draw
71%
Rosario Central or Talleres Cordoba
72%
Draw or Talleres Cordoba
57%

Winning margin

Rosario Central wins by 2+
19%
Talleres Cordoba wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Rosario Central 1+ goals
72%
Rosario Central 2+ goals
37%
Rosario Central 3+ goals
14%
Talleres Cordoba 1+ goals
64%
Talleres Cordoba 2+ goals
27%
Talleres Cordoba 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Rosario Central (draw refunded)
59%
Talleres Cordoba (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rosario Central at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.96 · 127 matches

Talleres Cordoba away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.16 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rosario Central attack 1.43 + Talleres Cordoba defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.29

Talleres Cordoba attack 1.09 + Rosario Central defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Rosario Central scores more
43%
level
28%
Talleres Cordoba scores more
29%

Rosario Central at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Rosario Central will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rosario Central vs Talleres Cordoba

Rosario Central and Talleres Cordoba drew 2-2 in Liga Profesional Argentina on September 15, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Gigante de Arroyito in Rosario, Provincia de Santa Fe.