Talleres Cordoba 0–0 Libertad Asuncion

Talleres Cordoba

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Libertad Asuncion

5/8/2025

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 4Estadio Mario Alberto Kempes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Talleres Cordoba49%

×Draw33%

Libertad Asuncion18%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Talleres CordobaExpected goals in this matchLibertad Asuncion

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

0.54

Talleres Cordoba

1.08

Libertad Asuncion

0.54

Talleres Cordoba creates 100% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 8 away

0.67

creates per match

0.75

0.33

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Talleres Cordoba

0.67

Libertad Asuncion

0.75

allows per match

Talleres Cordoba

0.33

Libertad Asuncion

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Talleres Cordoba+0.00on par

Libertad Asuncion+0.00on par

Total goals

Under78
Over22

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No72
Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Talleres Cordoba ↓

Libertad Asuncion →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–020%

0–111%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–021%

1–112%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–16%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

80%20%1.5

48%52%2.5

22%78%3.5

8%92%4.5

2%98%

Double chance

Talleres Cordoba or draw

82%

Talleres Cordoba or Libertad Asuncion

67%

Draw or Libertad Asuncion

51%

Winning margin

Talleres Cordoba wins by 2+

20%

Libertad Asuncion wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Talleres Cordoba 1+ goals

66%

Talleres Cordoba 2+ goals

29%

Talleres Cordoba 3+ goals

10%

Libertad Asuncion 1+ goals

42%

Libertad Asuncion 2+ goals

10%

Libertad Asuncion 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Talleres Cordoba (draw refunded)

73%

Libertad Asuncion (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

16%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Talleres Cordoba at home — creates 0.67, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Libertad Asuncion away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Talleres Cordoba attack 0.67 + Libertad Asuncion defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.08

Libertad Asuncion attack 0.75 + Talleres Cordoba defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Talleres Cordoba scores more

49%

level

33%

Libertad Asuncion scores more

18%

Talleres Cordoba at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Talleres Cordoba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

R. M. Morinigo Acosta

Libertad Asuncion · G

8.2

Match Events

13'

A. Schott← G. Benavidez

23'

Nahuel Bustos

30'

Álvaro Campuzano

51'

Néstor Giménez

61'

G. Aguilar← C. R. Santa

62'

A. Alcaraz← M. Fernandez

68'

J. Gallard← N. Bustos

68'

Rick← M. Navarro

69'

U. Ortegoza← J. Portilla

79'

V. Depietri← R. Botta

79'

R. Villalba← A. Fretes

79'

P. Villalba← L. Sanabria

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TalleresLibertad

Overview

62%Possession38%

13Total Shots6

0.57Expected Goals (xG)0.96

2Corners4

12Fouls16

Shots

13Total Shots6

5On Target1

6Off Target5

2Blocked0

7Inside Box4

6Outside Box2

Passing

62%Possession38%

549Total Passes339

459Accurate Passes260

84%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

1.17Goals Prevented1.17

Discipline

12Fouls16

1Yellow Cards2

3Offsides1