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Libertad Asuncion vs Talleres Cordoba — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2025

Libertad Asuncion
Libertad Asuncion
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Talleres Cordoba
Talleres Cordoba
A. Alcaraz 57'
I. Franco 9'
4/8/2025CONMEBOL LibertadoresCONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 2Estadio Tigo La Huerta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Libertad Asuncion46%
×Draw25%
Talleres Cordoba29%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Libertad Asuncion
1.61
Talleres Cordoba
1.22

Libertad Asuncion creates 32% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 3 away

creates per match

Libertad Asuncion
0.89
Talleres Cordoba
1.00

allows per match

Libertad Asuncion
1.44
Talleres Cordoba
2.33

finishing

Libertad Asuncion+0.00on par
Talleres Cordoba+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Libertad Asuncion ↓

Talleres Cordoba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Libertad Asuncion or draw
71%
Libertad Asuncion or Talleres Cordoba
75%
Draw or Talleres Cordoba
54%

Winning margin

Libertad Asuncion wins by 2+
24%
Talleres Cordoba wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Libertad Asuncion 1+ goals
80%
Libertad Asuncion 2+ goals
48%
Libertad Asuncion 3+ goals
22%
Talleres Cordoba 1+ goals
70%
Talleres Cordoba 2+ goals
34%
Talleres Cordoba 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Libertad Asuncion (draw refunded)
62%
Talleres Cordoba (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Libertad Asuncion at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

Talleres Cordoba away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Libertad Asuncion attack 0.89 + Talleres Cordoba defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.61

Talleres Cordoba attack 1.00 + Libertad Asuncion defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Libertad Asuncion scores more
46%
level
25%
Talleres Cordoba scores more
29%

Libertad Asuncion at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Libertad Asuncion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12
R. M. Morinigo AcostaLibertad AsuncionLibertad Asuncion · G
8.3

Match Events

9'
I. Franco↳ L. Melgarejo
11'
Iván FrancoGoal confirmed
19'
Néstor Giménez
20'
Nahuel Bustos
34'
Marcelo Fernandez
34'
Miguel Navarro
46'
L. Sanabria← A. Cardozo Lucena
46'
F. Girotti← C. Tarragona
57'
G. Aguilar← L. Melgarejo
57'
A. Alcaraz← C. R. Santa
57'
A. Alcaraz↳ T. Gutierrez
65'
M. Portillo← U. Ortegoza
65'
S. Palacios← M. Galarza
65'
V. Depietri← N. Bustos
72'
A. Fretes← M. Fernandez
74'
A. Campuzano← I. Franco
84'
E. Chiavassa← E. Reynoso
88'
Álvaro Campuzano
90+3'
Gustavo Aguilar
90+3'
Sebastián Palacios

Possession

35%Libertad

Shots

5Libertad

Pass accuracy

45%Libertad

Statistics

LibertadTalleres
Overview
35%Possession65%
5Total Shots24
0.99Expected Goals (xG)0.91
0Corners8
11Fouls10
Shots
5Total Shots24
2On Target5
2Off Target10
1Blocked9
5Inside Box9
0Outside Box15
Passing
35%Possession65%
311Total Passes562
226Accurate Passes494
73%Pass Accuracy88%
Goalkeeping
5Saves0
-0.34Goals Prevented-0.34
Discipline
11Fouls10
4Yellow Cards3
2Offsides0

Match Recap: Libertad Asuncion vs Talleres Cordoba

Libertad Asuncion beat Talleres Cordoba 2-0 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on April 8, 2025.

Goals: I. Franco (9'), A. Alcaraz (57').

Talleres Cordoba controlled possession (65%) and registered 24 shots to 5.

The match was played at Estadio Tigo La Huerta in Asuncion.