Talleres Cordoba 1–2 Emelec: Result & Stats

Talleres Cordoba

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Emelec

F. Fragapane 39'

F. Barcelo 78'

S. Rodríguez 73' (pen)

4/22/2021

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 1Estadio Mario Alberto Kempes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Talleres Cordoba24%

×Draw32%

Emelec44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Talleres CordobaExpected goals in this matchEmelec

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.71

1.09

Talleres Cordoba

0.71

Emelec

1.09

Emelec creates 54% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 11 away

0.33

creates per match

1.18

1.00

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Talleres Cordoba

0.33

Emelec

1.18

allows per match

Talleres Cordoba

1.00

Emelec

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Talleres Cordoba+0.00on par

Emelec+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Talleres Cordoba ↓

Emelec →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–118%

0–210%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–15%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

54%46%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Talleres Cordoba or draw

56%

Talleres Cordoba or Emelec

68%

Draw or Emelec

76%

Winning margin

Talleres Cordoba wins by 2+

7%

Emelec wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Talleres Cordoba 1+ goals

51%

Talleres Cordoba 2+ goals

16%

Talleres Cordoba 3+ goals

4%

Emelec 1+ goals

66%

Emelec 2+ goals

30%

Emelec 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Talleres Cordoba (draw refunded)

35%

Emelec (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Talleres Cordoba at home — creates 0.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Emelec away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Talleres Cordoba attack 0.33 + Emelec defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.71

Emelec attack 1.18 + Talleres Cordoba defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Talleres Cordoba scores more

24%

level

32%

Emelec scores more

44%

Emelec at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Emelec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

D. Valoyes

Talleres Cordoba · F

8.0

Match Events

6'

10'

15'

15'

17'

32'

39'

F. Fragapane↳ D. Valoyes

50'

M. Santos← Guilherme Parede

58'

B. Carabalí← Á. Gracia

70'

Á. Martino← E. Díaz

70'

J. Soñora← F. Fragapane

71'

Federico Navarro

73'

S. RodríguezPenalty

78'

F. Barcelo↳ R. Caicedo

81'

J. Orejuela← A. Zapata

82'

Piero Hincapie

85'

M. Ortiz← I. Méndez

85'

M. Retegui← C. Auzqui

89'

Guido Herrera

89'

J. Rojas← A. Cabeza

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TalleresEmelec

Overview

55%Possession45%

15Total Shots12

7Corners3

14Fouls12

Shots

15Total Shots12

4On Target4

6Off Target5

5Blocked3

12Inside Box10

3Outside Box2

Passing

55%Possession45%

439Total Passes360

353Accurate Passes274

80%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls12

6Yellow Cards3

2Offsides5