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Emelec vs Talleres Cordoba — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Emelec
Emelec
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Talleres Cordoba
Talleres Cordoba
S. Rodríguez 73'
J. Komar 82'
Á. Martino 38'
C. Auzqui 24'
E. Díaz 13'
5/26/2021CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 6Estadio Banco del Pacífico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Emelec28%
×Draw26%
Talleres Cordoba46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Emelec
1.08
Talleres Cordoba
1.46

Talleres Cordoba creates 35% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 3 away

creates per match

Emelec
1.50
Talleres Cordoba
2.00

allows per match

Emelec
0.92
Talleres Cordoba
0.67

finishing

Emelec+0.00on par
Talleres Cordoba+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Emelec ↓

Talleres Cordoba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Emelec or draw
54%
Emelec or Talleres Cordoba
74%
Draw or Talleres Cordoba
72%

Winning margin

Emelec wins by 2+
11%
Talleres Cordoba wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Emelec 1+ goals
66%
Emelec 2+ goals
29%
Emelec 3+ goals
10%
Talleres Cordoba 1+ goals
77%
Talleres Cordoba 2+ goals
43%
Talleres Cordoba 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Emelec (draw refunded)
38%
Talleres Cordoba (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Emelec at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

Talleres Cordoba away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Emelec attack 1.50 + Talleres Cordoba defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.08

Talleres Cordoba attack 2.00 + Emelec defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Emelec scores more
28%
level
26%
Talleres Cordoba scores more
46%

Talleres Cordoba at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Talleres Cordoba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28
C. AuzquiTalleres CordobaTalleres Cordoba · M
9.3

Match Events

13'
E. Díaz↳ C. Auzqui
24'
C. Auzqui↳ J. Romero
38'
Á. Martino↳ C. Auzqui
46'
A. Zapata← J. Orejuela
46'
D. Montiel← O. Bagüí
46'
F. Barcelo← J. Rojas
46'
B. Carabalí← R. Caicedo
47'
Dixon Arroyo
47'
Julián Malatini
50'
Marcos Díaz
54'
Davor Montiel
67'
Rafael Pérez
67'
Enzo Díaz
69'
J. Komar← P. Hincapié
69'
M. Ortiz← J. Romero
73'
S. Rodríguez
77'
Ángelo Martino
77'
F. Mac Allister← J. Mauri
78'
M. Sosa← Á. Martino
79'
J. Cevallos← D. Arroyo
82'
J. Komar↳ M. Retegui
87'
Luca Sosa
89'
C. Ludueña← C. Auzqui
90'
Matías Sosa

Possession

57%Emelec

Shots

8Emelec

Pass accuracy

53%Emelec

Statistics

EmelecTalleres
Overview
57%Possession43%
8Total Shots19
5Corners7
12Fouls24
Shots
8Total Shots19
3On Target10
4Off Target3
1Blocked6
6Inside Box13
2Outside Box6
Passing
57%Possession43%
424Total Passes314
350Accurate Passes236
83%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
6Saves2
Discipline
12Fouls24
3Yellow Cards6
3Offsides4

Match Recap: Emelec vs Talleres Cordoba

Talleres Cordoba beat Emelec 4-1 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on May 26, 2021.

Goals: E. Díaz (13'), C. Auzqui (24'), Á. Martino (38'), S. Rodríguez (73'), J. Komar (82').

Emelec controlled possession (57%) and registered 8 shots to 19.

The match was played at Estadio Banco del Pacífico in Guayaquil.