Talavera II 0–1 Quintanar del Rey: Result & Stats

Talavera II

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Quintanar del Rey

11/5/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 9Estadio Diego Mateo Zarra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Talavera II23%

×Draw28%

Quintanar del Rey49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Talavera IIExpected goals in this matchQuintanar del Rey

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.86

1.38

Talavera II

0.86

Quintanar del Rey

1.38

Quintanar del Rey creates 60% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 94 away

0.80

creates per match

1.23

1.53

allows per match

0.93

creates per match

Talavera II

0.80

Quintanar del Rey

1.23

allows per match

Talavera II

1.53

Quintanar del Rey

0.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Talavera II+0.00on par

Quintanar del Rey+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Talavera II ↓

Quintanar del Rey →

0–011%

0–115%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2–04%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Talavera II or draw

51%

Talavera II or Quintanar del Rey

72%

Draw or Quintanar del Rey

77%

Winning margin

Talavera II wins by 2+

Quintanar del Rey wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Talavera II 1+ goals

58%

Talavera II 2+ goals

21%

Talavera II 3+ goals

Quintanar del Rey 1+ goals

75%

Quintanar del Rey 2+ goals

40%

Quintanar del Rey 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Talavera II (draw refunded)

32%

Quintanar del Rey (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Talavera II at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

Quintanar del Rey away — creates 1.23, concedes 0.93 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Talavera II attack 0.80 + Quintanar del Rey defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.86

Quintanar del Rey attack 1.23 + Talavera II defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 49%?"

Talavera II scores more

23%

level

28%

Quintanar del Rey scores more

49%

Quintanar del Rey at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Quintanar del Rey will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Talavera II vs Quintanar del Rey

Quintanar del Rey beat Talavera II 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on November 5, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Diego Mateo Zarra in Talavera de la Reina.

Talavera II vs Quintanar del Rey — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Talavera II vs Quintanar del Rey