Quintanar del Rey 1–0 Talavera II: Result & Stats

Quintanar del Rey

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Talavera II

3/12/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 24Estadio San Marcos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Quintanar del Rey69%

×Draw19%

Talavera II11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Quintanar del ReyExpected goals in this matchTalavera II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.05

0.69

Quintanar del Rey

2.05

Talavera II

0.69

Quintanar del Rey creates 197% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 15 away

1.63

creates per match

0.73

0.65

allows per match

2.47

creates per match

Quintanar del Rey

1.63

Talavera II

0.73

allows per match

Quintanar del Rey

0.65

Talavera II

2.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Quintanar del Rey+0.00on par

Talavera II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Quintanar del Rey ↓

Talavera II →

0–06%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1–013%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Quintanar del Rey or draw

89%

Quintanar del Rey or Talavera II

81%

Draw or Talavera II

31%

Winning margin

Quintanar del Rey wins by 2+

44%

Talavera II wins by 2+

Team goals

Quintanar del Rey 1+ goals

87%

Quintanar del Rey 2+ goals

61%

Quintanar del Rey 3+ goals

33%

Talavera II 1+ goals

50%

Talavera II 2+ goals

15%

Talavera II 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Quintanar del Rey (draw refunded)

86%

Talavera II (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Quintanar del Rey at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.65 · 92 matches

Talavera II away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Quintanar del Rey attack 1.63 + Talavera II defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.05

Talavera II attack 0.73 + Quintanar del Rey defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 69%?"

Quintanar del Rey scores more

69%

level

19%

Talavera II scores more

11%

Quintanar del Rey at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Quintanar del Rey will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Quintanar del Rey vs Talavera II

Quintanar del Rey beat Talavera II 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on March 12, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio San Marcos in Quintanar del Rey.

Quintanar del Rey vs Talavera II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Quintanar del Rey vs Talavera II