Talavera II 0–1 Marchamalo: Result & Stats

Talavera II

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Marchamalo

10/9/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 5Estadio Diego Mateo Zarra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Talavera II30%

×Draw28%

Marchamalo42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Talavera IIExpected goals in this matchMarchamalo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.28

Talavera II

1.04

Marchamalo

1.28

Marchamalo creates 23% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 79 away

0.80

creates per match

1.03

1.53

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Talavera II

0.80

Marchamalo

1.03

allows per match

Talavera II

1.53

Marchamalo

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Talavera II+0.00on par

Marchamalo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Talavera II ↓

Marchamalo →

0–010%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–05%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Talavera II or draw

58%

Talavera II or Marchamalo

72%

Draw or Marchamalo

70%

Winning margin

Talavera II wins by 2+

11%

Marchamalo wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Talavera II 1+ goals

65%

Talavera II 2+ goals

28%

Talavera II 3+ goals

Marchamalo 1+ goals

72%

Marchamalo 2+ goals

37%

Marchamalo 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Talavera II (draw refunded)

42%

Marchamalo (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Talavera II at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

Marchamalo away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.29 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Talavera II attack 0.80 + Marchamalo defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.04

Marchamalo attack 1.03 + Talavera II defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 42%?"

Talavera II scores more

30%

level

28%

Marchamalo scores more

42%

Marchamalo at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Marchamalo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff