Marchamalo 4–0 Talavera II: Result & Stats

Marchamalo

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Talavera II

2/12/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 20Estadio La Solana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Marchamalo61%

×Draw22%

Talavera II17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MarchamaloExpected goals in this matchTalavera II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

0.89

Marchamalo

1.89

Talavera II

0.89

Marchamalo creates 112% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 15 away

1.30

creates per match

0.73

1.05

allows per match

2.47

creates per match

Marchamalo

1.30

Talavera II

0.73

allows per match

Marchamalo

1.05

Talavera II

2.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Marchamalo+0.00on par

Talavera II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marchamalo ↓

Talavera II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Marchamalo or draw

83%

Marchamalo or Talavera II

78%

Draw or Talavera II

39%

Winning margin

Marchamalo wins by 2+

36%

Talavera II wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Marchamalo 1+ goals

85%

Marchamalo 2+ goals

56%

Marchamalo 3+ goals

29%

Talavera II 1+ goals

59%

Talavera II 2+ goals

22%

Talavera II 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Marchamalo (draw refunded)

78%

Talavera II (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marchamalo at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.05 · 79 matches

Talavera II away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marchamalo attack 1.30 + Talavera II defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 1.89

Talavera II attack 0.73 + Marchamalo defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Marchamalo scores more

61%

level

22%

Talavera II scores more

17%

Marchamalo at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Marchamalo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff