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Talavera II vs Conquense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Talavera II
Talavera II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Conquense
Conquense
9/25/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 3Estadio Diego Mateo Zarra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Talavera II23%
×Draw28%
Conquense50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Talavera II
0.83
Conquense
1.38

Conquense creates 66% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 76 away

creates per match

Talavera II
0.80
Conquense
1.22

allows per match

Talavera II
1.53
Conquense
0.87

finishing

Talavera II+0.00on par
Conquense+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Talavera II ↓

Conquense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–115%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Talavera II or draw
50%
Talavera II or Conquense
72%
Draw or Conquense
77%

Winning margin

Talavera II wins by 2+
7%
Conquense wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Talavera II 1+ goals
56%
Talavera II 2+ goals
20%
Talavera II 3+ goals
5%
Conquense 1+ goals
75%
Conquense 2+ goals
40%
Conquense 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Talavera II (draw refunded)
31%
Conquense (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Talavera II at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

Conquense away — creates 1.22, concedes 0.87 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Talavera II attack 0.80 + Conquense defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.83

Conquense attack 1.22 + Talavera II defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Talavera II scores more
23%
level
28%
Conquense scores more
50%

Conquense at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Conquense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Talavera II vs Conquense

Talavera II and Conquense drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on September 25, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Diego Mateo Zarra in Talavera de la Reina.