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Conquense vs Talavera II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Conquense
Conquense
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Talavera II
Talavera II
1/29/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 18Estadio Municipal La Fuensanta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Conquense66%
×Draw21%
Talavera II13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Conquense
1.94
Talavera II
0.74

Conquense creates 162% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 15 away

creates per match

Conquense
1.41
Talavera II
0.73

allows per match

Conquense
0.76
Talavera II
2.47

finishing

Conquense+0.00on par
Talavera II+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Conquense ↓

Talavera II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Conquense or draw
87%
Conquense or Talavera II
79%
Draw or Talavera II
34%

Winning margin

Conquense wins by 2+
40%
Talavera II wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Conquense 1+ goals
86%
Conquense 2+ goals
58%
Conquense 3+ goals
30%
Talavera II 1+ goals
52%
Talavera II 2+ goals
17%
Talavera II 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Conquense (draw refunded)
83%
Talavera II (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Conquense at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.76 · 78 matches

Talavera II away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Conquense attack 1.41 + Talavera II defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 1.94

Talavera II attack 0.73 + Conquense defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Conquense scores more
66%
level
21%
Talavera II scores more
13%

Conquense at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Conquense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Conquense vs Talavera II

Conquense beat Talavera II 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on January 29, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal La Fuensanta in Cuenca.