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Talavera II vs Azuqueca — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Talavera II
Talavera II
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Azuqueca
Azuqueca
4/6/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 28Campo de Fútbol Municipal Jesús Fraile

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Talavera II32%
×Draw28%
Azuqueca40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Talavera II
1.11
Azuqueca
1.26

Azuqueca creates 14% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 112 away

creates per match

Talavera II
0.80
Azuqueca
0.99

allows per match

Talavera II
1.53
Azuqueca
1.43

finishing

Talavera II+0.00on par
Azuqueca+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Talavera II ↓

Azuqueca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Talavera II or draw
60%
Talavera II or Azuqueca
72%
Draw or Azuqueca
68%

Winning margin

Talavera II wins by 2+
13%
Azuqueca wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Talavera II 1+ goals
67%
Talavera II 2+ goals
30%
Talavera II 3+ goals
10%
Azuqueca 1+ goals
72%
Azuqueca 2+ goals
36%
Azuqueca 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Talavera II (draw refunded)
45%
Azuqueca (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Talavera II at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

Azuqueca away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.43 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Talavera II attack 0.80 + Azuqueca defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.11

Azuqueca attack 0.99 + Talavera II defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Talavera II scores more
32%
level
28%
Azuqueca scores more
40%

Azuqueca at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Azuqueca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Talavera II 0 – 2 Azuqueca

Azuqueca beat Talavera II 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on April 6, 2023.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Municipal Jesús Fraile in Talavera de la Reina.