Azuqueca 6–3 Talavera II: Result & Stats

Azuqueca

FT

6 – 3

HT: 4 – 1

Talavera II

12/11/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 13Estadio San Miguel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Azuqueca61%

×Draw21%

Talavera II18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AzuquecaExpected goals in this matchTalavera II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.07

1.02

Azuqueca

2.07

Talavera II

1.02

Azuqueca creates 103% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 15 away

1.67

creates per match

0.73

1.31

allows per match

2.47

creates per match

Azuqueca

1.67

Talavera II

0.73

allows per match

Azuqueca

1.31

Talavera II

2.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Azuqueca+0.00on par

Talavera II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Azuqueca ↓

Talavera II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Azuqueca or draw

82%

Azuqueca or Talavera II

79%

Draw or Talavera II

39%

Winning margin

Azuqueca wins by 2+

38%

Talavera II wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Azuqueca 1+ goals

87%

Azuqueca 2+ goals

61%

Azuqueca 3+ goals

34%

Talavera II 1+ goals

64%

Talavera II 2+ goals

27%

Talavera II 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Azuqueca (draw refunded)

77%

Talavera II (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Azuqueca at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.31 · 111 matches

Talavera II away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Azuqueca attack 1.67 + Talavera II defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.07

Talavera II attack 0.73 + Azuqueca defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Azuqueca scores more

61%

level

21%

Talavera II scores more

18%

Azuqueca at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Azuqueca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff