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Talasgücü Belediyespor vs Kırşehir Belediyespor — League #553 2026

Talasgücü Belediyespor
Talasgücü Belediyespor
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Kırşehir Belediyespor
Kırşehir Belediyespor
F. Sanliturk 87'
S. Yigit 45+2'
A. Akcakin 41'
O. Dursun 90+7' (pen)
C. Sendur 4'
3/14/2026League #553League #553 · Group 2 - 25Kayseri Atatürk Spor Kompleksi Yan Açık Saha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Talasgücü Belediyespor32%
×Draw23%
Kırşehir Belediyespor45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Talasgücü Belediyespor
1.47
Kırşehir Belediyespor
1.77

Kırşehir Belediyespor creates 20% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

Talasgücü Belediyespor
1.33
Kırşehir Belediyespor
1.20

allows per match

Talasgücü Belediyespor
2.33
Kırşehir Belediyespor
1.60

finishing

Talasgücü Belediyespor+0.00on par
Kırşehir Belediyespor+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Talasgücü Belediyespor ↓

Kırşehir Belediyespor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Talasgücü Belediyespor or draw
55%
Talasgücü Belediyespor or Kırşehir Belediyespor
77%
Draw or Kırşehir Belediyespor
68%

Winning margin

Talasgücü Belediyespor wins by 2+
15%
Kırşehir Belediyespor wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Talasgücü Belediyespor 1+ goals
77%
Talasgücü Belediyespor 2+ goals
43%
Talasgücü Belediyespor 3+ goals
18%
Kırşehir Belediyespor 1+ goals
83%
Kırşehir Belediyespor 2+ goals
53%
Kırşehir Belediyespor 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Talasgücü Belediyespor (draw refunded)
42%
Kırşehir Belediyespor (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Talasgücü Belediyespor at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Kırşehir Belediyespor away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Talasgücü Belediyespor attack 1.33 + Kırşehir Belediyespor defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.47

Kırşehir Belediyespor attack 1.20 + Talasgücü Belediyespor defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Talasgücü Belediyespor scores more
32%
level
23%
Kırşehir Belediyespor scores more
45%

Kırşehir Belediyespor at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Kırşehir Belediyespor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
C. Sendur
41'
A. Akcakin
45+2'
S. Yigit↳ C. Yasak
87'
F. Sanliturk↳ E. Balci
90+7'
O. DursunPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #553: Talasgücü Belediyespor 3–2 Kırşehir Belediyespor

Talasgücü Belediyespor beat Kırşehir Belediyespor 3-2 in League #553 on March 14, 2026.

Goals: C. Sendur (4'), A. Akcakin (41'), S. Yigit (45+2'), F. Sanliturk (87'), O. Dursun (90+7' pen).

The match was played at Kayseri Atatürk Spor Kompleksi Yan Açık Saha in Kayseri.