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Kırşehir Belediyespor vs Talasgücü Belediyespor — League #553 2026

Kırşehir Belediyespor
Kırşehir Belediyespor
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Talasgücü Belediyespor
Talasgücü Belediyespor
E. Kars 90+2'
E. Kaya 51'
11/9/2025League #553League #553 · Group 2 - 10Kırşehir Ahi Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Kırşehir Belediyespor58%
×Draw32%
Talasgücü Belediyespor10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kırşehir Belediyespor
1.17
Talasgücü Belediyespor
0.33

Kırşehir Belediyespor creates 255% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Kırşehir Belediyespor
1.67
Talasgücü Belediyespor
0.33

allows per match

Kırşehir Belediyespor
0.33
Talasgücü Belediyespor
0.67

finishing

Kırşehir Belediyespor+0.00on par
Talasgücü Belediyespor+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Under
  • Under81
  • Over19

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

81%No
  • No81
  • Yes19

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kırşehir Belediyespor ↓

Talasgücü Belediyespor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–022%
0–17%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–026%
1–19%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–15%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–12%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (26%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
78%22%1.5
44%56%2.5
19%81%3.5
7%93%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Kırşehir Belediyespor or draw
90%
Kırşehir Belediyespor or Talasgücü Belediyespor
68%
Draw or Talasgücü Belediyespor
42%

Winning margin

Kırşehir Belediyespor wins by 2+
26%
Talasgücü Belediyespor wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Kırşehir Belediyespor 1+ goals
69%
Kırşehir Belediyespor 2+ goals
33%
Kırşehir Belediyespor 3+ goals
11%
Talasgücü Belediyespor 1+ goals
28%
Talasgücü Belediyespor 2+ goals
4%
Talasgücü Belediyespor 3+ goals
0%

Draw no bet

Kırşehir Belediyespor (draw refunded)
85%
Talasgücü Belediyespor (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
11%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kırşehir Belediyespor at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Talasgücü Belediyespor away — creates 0.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kırşehir Belediyespor attack 1.67 + Talasgücü Belediyespor defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.17

Talasgücü Belediyespor attack 0.33 + Kırşehir Belediyespor defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Kırşehir Belediyespor scores more
58%
level
32%
Talasgücü Belediyespor scores more
10%

Kırşehir Belediyespor at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Kırşehir Belediyespor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

51'
E. Kaya↳ T. Adamcil
90+2'
E. Kars↳ M. Akoz

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kırşehir Belediyespor vs Talasgücü Belediyespor

Kırşehir Belediyespor and Talasgücü Belediyespor drew 1-1 in League #553 on November 9, 2025.

Goals: E. Kaya (51'), E. Kars (90+2').

The match was played at Kırşehir Ahi Stadyumu in Kırşehir.