Talanta 1–2 GOR Mahia: Result & Stats

Talanta

FT

1 – 2

GOR Mahia

4/26/2023

FKF Premier League · Round 25Moi International Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Talanta22%

×Draw27%

GOR Mahia51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TalantaExpected goals in this matchGOR Mahia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.85

1.43

Talanta

0.85

GOR Mahia

1.43

GOR Mahia creates 68% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 144 away

0.90

creates per match

1.49

1.36

allows per match

0.80

creates per match

Talanta

0.90

GOR Mahia

1.49

allows per match

Talanta

1.36

GOR Mahia

0.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Talanta+0.00on par

GOR Mahia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Talanta ↓

GOR Mahia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–115%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Talanta or draw

49%

Talanta or GOR Mahia

73%

Draw or GOR Mahia

78%

Winning margin

Talanta wins by 2+

7%

GOR Mahia wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Talanta 1+ goals

57%

Talanta 2+ goals

21%

Talanta 3+ goals

5%

GOR Mahia 1+ goals

76%

GOR Mahia 2+ goals

42%

GOR Mahia 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Talanta (draw refunded)

31%

GOR Mahia (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Talanta at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.36 · 67 matches

GOR Mahia away — creates 1.49, concedes 0.80 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Talanta attack 0.90 + GOR Mahia defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.85

GOR Mahia attack 1.49 + Talanta defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Talanta scores more

22%

level

27%

GOR Mahia scores more

51%

GOR Mahia at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "GOR Mahia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff