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GOR Mahia vs Talanta — FKF Premier League 2018

GOR Mahia
GOR Mahia
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Talanta
Talanta
6/19/2024FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 30Kenyatta Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

GOR Mahia50%
×Draw26%
Talanta23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GOR Mahia
1.50
Talanta
0.93

GOR Mahia creates 61% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 69 away

creates per match

GOR Mahia
1.58
Talanta
1.17

allows per match

GOR Mahia
0.70
Talanta
1.41

finishing

GOR Mahia+0.00on par
Talanta+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GOR Mahia ↓

Talanta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

GOR Mahia or draw
77%
GOR Mahia or Talanta
74%
Draw or Talanta
50%

Winning margin

GOR Mahia wins by 2+
26%
Talanta wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

GOR Mahia 1+ goals
78%
GOR Mahia 2+ goals
44%
GOR Mahia 3+ goals
19%
Talanta 1+ goals
61%
Talanta 2+ goals
24%
Talanta 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

GOR Mahia (draw refunded)
68%
Talanta (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GOR Mahia at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.70 · 147 matches

Talanta away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.41 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GOR Mahia attack 1.58 + Talanta defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.50

Talanta attack 1.17 + GOR Mahia defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

GOR Mahia scores more
50%
level
26%
Talanta scores more
23%

GOR Mahia at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "GOR Mahia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FKF Premier League: GOR Mahia 2–4 Talanta

Talanta beat GOR Mahia 4-2 in FKF Premier League on June 19, 2024.

The match was played at Kenyatta Stadium in Machakos.