Takovo 2–2 Šumadija Aranđelovac: Result & Stats

Takovo

FT

2 – 2

Šumadija Aranđelovac

4/24/2021

Srpska Liga - West · West - 26Stadion FK Takovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Takovo65%

×Draw20%

Šumadija Aranđelovac14%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TakovoExpected goals in this matchŠumadija Aranđelovac

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.03

0.82

Takovo

2.03

Šumadija Aranđelovac

0.82

Takovo creates 148% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

0.88

creates per match

0.65

1.00

allows per match

3.18

creates per match

Takovo

0.88

Šumadija Aranđelovac

0.65

allows per match

Takovo

1.00

Šumadija Aranđelovac

3.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Takovo+0.00on par

Šumadija Aranđelovac+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Takovo ↓

Šumadija Aranđelovac →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Takovo or draw

86%

Takovo or Šumadija Aranđelovac

80%

Draw or Šumadija Aranđelovac

35%

Winning margin

Takovo wins by 2+

41%

Šumadija Aranđelovac wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Takovo 1+ goals

87%

Takovo 2+ goals

60%

Takovo 3+ goals

33%

Šumadija Aranđelovac 1+ goals

56%

Šumadija Aranđelovac 2+ goals

20%

Šumadija Aranđelovac 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Takovo (draw refunded)

82%

Šumadija Aranđelovac (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Takovo at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.00 · 17 matches

Šumadija Aranđelovac away — creates 0.65, concedes 3.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Takovo attack 0.88 + Šumadija Aranđelovac defence 3.18 → ÷2 → 2.03

Šumadija Aranđelovac attack 0.65 + Takovo defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Takovo scores more

65%

level

20%

Šumadija Aranđelovac scores more

14%

Takovo at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Takovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff