Šumadija Aranđelovac 1–4 Takovo: Result & Stats

Šumadija Aranđelovac

FT

1 – 4

Takovo

10/3/2020

Srpska Liga - West · West - 9Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Šumadija Aranđelovac31%

×Draw28%

Takovo41%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Šumadija AranđelovacExpected goals in this matchTakovo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.26

Šumadija Aranđelovac

1.06

Takovo

1.26

Takovo creates 19% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 20 away

0.88

creates per match

0.80

1.72

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Šumadija Aranđelovac

0.88

Takovo

0.80

allows per match

Šumadija Aranđelovac

1.72

Takovo

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Šumadija Aranđelovac+0.00on par

Takovo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Šumadija Aranđelovac ↓

Takovo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Šumadija Aranđelovac or draw

59%

Šumadija Aranđelovac or Takovo

72%

Draw or Takovo

69%

Winning margin

Šumadija Aranđelovac wins by 2+

12%

Takovo wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Šumadija Aranđelovac 1+ goals

65%

Šumadija Aranđelovac 2+ goals

29%

Šumadija Aranđelovac 3+ goals

9%

Takovo 1+ goals

72%

Takovo 2+ goals

36%

Takovo 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Šumadija Aranđelovac (draw refunded)

43%

Takovo (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Šumadija Aranđelovac at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.72 · 25 matches

Takovo away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.25 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Šumadija Aranđelovac attack 0.88 + Takovo defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.06

Takovo attack 0.80 + Šumadija Aranđelovac defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Šumadija Aranđelovac scores more

31%

level

28%

Takovo scores more

41%

Takovo at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Takovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff