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Takovo vs RSK Rabrovo — Srpska Liga - West 2025

Takovo
Takovo
FT
1 – 1
RSK Rabrovo
RSK Rabrovo
11/13/2021Srpska Liga - WestSrpska Liga - West · West - 14Stadion FK Takovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Takovo61%
×Draw24%
RSK Rabrovo16%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Takovo
1.70
RSK Rabrovo
0.72

Takovo creates 136% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 13 away

creates per match

Takovo
0.94
RSK Rabrovo
0.62

allows per match

Takovo
0.81
RSK Rabrovo
2.46

finishing

Takovo+0.00on par
RSK Rabrovo+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Takovo ↓

RSK Rabrovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Takovo or draw
84%
Takovo or RSK Rabrovo
76%
Draw or RSK Rabrovo
39%

Winning margin

Takovo wins by 2+
34%
RSK Rabrovo wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Takovo 1+ goals
82%
Takovo 2+ goals
51%
Takovo 3+ goals
24%
RSK Rabrovo 1+ goals
51%
RSK Rabrovo 2+ goals
16%
RSK Rabrovo 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Takovo (draw refunded)
80%
RSK Rabrovo (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Takovo at home — creates 0.94, concedes 0.81 · 16 matches

RSK Rabrovo away — creates 0.62, concedes 2.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Takovo attack 0.94 + RSK Rabrovo defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 1.70

RSK Rabrovo attack 0.62 + Takovo defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Takovo scores more
61%
level
24%
RSK Rabrovo scores more
16%

Takovo at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Takovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - West: Takovo 1–1 RSK Rabrovo

Takovo and RSK Rabrovo drew 1-1 in Srpska Liga - West on November 13, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion FK Takovo in Gornji Milanovac.