RSK Rabrovo 0–2 Takovo: Result & Stats

RSK Rabrovo

FT

0 – 2

Takovo

5/29/2022

Srpska Liga - West · West - 29Stadion RSK Rabrovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

RSK Rabrovo39%

×Draw27%

Takovo34%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RSK RabrovoExpected goals in this matchTakovo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.18

RSK Rabrovo

1.29

Takovo

1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 18 away

1.25

creates per match

0.61

1.75

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

RSK Rabrovo

1.25

Takovo

0.61

allows per match

RSK Rabrovo

1.75

Takovo

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

RSK Rabrovo+0.00on par

Takovo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RSK Rabrovo ↓

Takovo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

RSK Rabrovo or draw

66%

RSK Rabrovo or Takovo

73%

Draw or Takovo

61%

Winning margin

RSK Rabrovo wins by 2+

17%

Takovo wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

RSK Rabrovo 1+ goals

72%

RSK Rabrovo 2+ goals

37%

RSK Rabrovo 3+ goals

14%

Takovo 1+ goals

69%

Takovo 2+ goals

33%

Takovo 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

RSK Rabrovo (draw refunded)

54%

Takovo (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RSK Rabrovo at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.75 · 12 matches

Takovo away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.33 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RSK Rabrovo attack 1.25 + Takovo defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.29

Takovo attack 0.61 + RSK Rabrovo defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

RSK Rabrovo scores more

39%

level

27%

Takovo scores more

34%

RSK Rabrovo at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "RSK Rabrovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff