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Tak Chun Ka I vs Lun Lok — Primeira Divisão 2026

Tak Chun Ka I
Tak Chun Ka I
FT
0 – 6
Lun Lok
Lun Lok
4/12/2024Primeira DivisãoPrimeira Divisão · Round 7Canidrome

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Tak Chun Ka I41%
×Draw18%
Lun Lok41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tak Chun Ka I
2.67
Lun Lok
2.67

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 28 away

creates per match

Tak Chun Ka I
1.41
Lun Lok
1.46

allows per match

Tak Chun Ka I
3.88
Lun Lok
3.93

finishing

Tak Chun Ka I+0.00on par
Lun Lok+0.00on par

Total goals

90%Over
  • Over90
  • Under10

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

86%Yes
  • Yes86
  • No14

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tak Chun Ka I ↓

Lun Lok →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–25%
1–34%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–26%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–24%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (6%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
90%10%3.5
77%23%4.5
60%40%

Double chance

Tak Chun Ka I or draw
59%
Tak Chun Ka I or Lun Lok
82%
Draw or Lun Lok
59%

Winning margin

Tak Chun Ka I wins by 2+
24%
Lun Lok wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Tak Chun Ka I 1+ goals
93%
Tak Chun Ka I 2+ goals
74%
Tak Chun Ka I 3+ goals
49%
Lun Lok 1+ goals
93%
Lun Lok 2+ goals
74%
Lun Lok 3+ goals
49%

Draw no bet

Tak Chun Ka I (draw refunded)
50%
Lun Lok (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
83%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tak Chun Ka I at home — creates 1.41, concedes 3.88 · 17 matches

Lun Lok away — creates 1.46, concedes 3.93 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tak Chun Ka I attack 1.41 + Lun Lok defence 3.93 → ÷2 → 2.67

Lun Lok attack 1.46 + Tak Chun Ka I defence 3.88 → ÷2 → 2.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Tak Chun Ka I scores more
41%
level
18%
Lun Lok scores more
41%

Tak Chun Ka I at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Tak Chun Ka I will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tak Chun Ka I vs Lun Lok

Lun Lok beat Tak Chun Ka I 6-0 in Primeira Divisão on April 12, 2024.

The match was played at Canidrome in Macau.