Lun Lok 1–2 Tak Chun Ka I: Result & Stats

Lun Lok

FT

1 – 2

Tak Chun Ka I

4/14/2023

Primeira Divisão · Round 7Canidrome

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Lun Lok43%

×Draw18%

Tak Chun Ka I40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lun LokExpected goals in this matchTak Chun Ka I

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.03

2.93

Lun Lok

3.03

Tak Chun Ka I

2.93

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 16 away

1.00

creates per match

1.13

4.73

allows per match

5.06

creates per match

Lun Lok

1.00

Tak Chun Ka I

1.13

allows per match

Lun Lok

4.73

Tak Chun Ka I

5.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lun Lok+0.00on par

Tak Chun Ka I+0.00on par

Total goals

Over93
Under7

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes90
No10

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lun Lok ↓

Tak Chun Ka I →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–00%

0–11%

0–21%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–01%

1–12%

1–24%

1–34%

1–43%

2

2–01%

2–14%

2–25%

2–35%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–14%

3–25%

3–35%

3–44%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–24%

4–34%

4–43%

Most likely 2–2 (5%) · grid covers 72% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

98%2%2.5

93%7%3.5

83%17%4.5

69%31%

Double chance

Lun Lok or draw

60%

Lun Lok or Tak Chun Ka I

82%

Draw or Tak Chun Ka I

57%

Winning margin

Lun Lok wins by 2+

26%

Tak Chun Ka I wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Lun Lok 1+ goals

95%

Lun Lok 2+ goals

80%

Lun Lok 3+ goals

57%

Tak Chun Ka I 1+ goals

94%

Tak Chun Ka I 2+ goals

78%

Tak Chun Ka I 3+ goals

55%

Draw no bet

Lun Lok (draw refunded)

52%

Tak Chun Ka I (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

87%

Both score & under 3

2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lun Lok at home — creates 1.00, concedes 4.73 · 22 matches

Tak Chun Ka I away — creates 1.13, concedes 5.06 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lun Lok attack 1.00 + Tak Chun Ka I defence 5.06 → ÷2 → 3.03

Tak Chun Ka I attack 1.13 + Lun Lok defence 4.73 → ÷2 → 2.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Lun Lok scores more

43%

level

18%

Tak Chun Ka I scores more

40%

Lun Lok at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Lun Lok will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff