Tak Chun Ka I 0–6 Jia Hua: Result & Stats

Tak Chun Ka I

FT

0 – 6

Jia Hua

3/16/2024

Primeira Divisão · Round 3Canidrome

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Tak Chun Ka I13%

×Draw13%

Jia Hua74%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tak Chun Ka IExpected goals in this matchJia Hua

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

3.60

Tak Chun Ka I

1.50

Jia Hua

3.60

Jia Hua creates 140% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 25 away

1.41

creates per match

3.32

3.88

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Tak Chun Ka I

1.41

Jia Hua

3.32

allows per match

Tak Chun Ka I

3.88

Jia Hua

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tak Chun Ka I+0.00on par

Jia Hua+0.00on par

Total goals

Over87
Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tak Chun Ka I ↓

Jia Hua →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–24%

0–35%

0–45%

1

1–01%

1–14%

1–26%

1–38%

1–47%

2

2–01%

2–13%

2–25%

2–36%

2–45%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–22%

3–33%

3–43%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 75% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

87%13%3.5

73%27%4.5

54%46%

Double chance

Tak Chun Ka I or draw

26%

Tak Chun Ka I or Jia Hua

87%

Draw or Jia Hua

87%

Winning margin

Tak Chun Ka I wins by 2+

5%

Jia Hua wins by 2+

56%

Team goals

Tak Chun Ka I 1+ goals

78%

Tak Chun Ka I 2+ goals

44%

Tak Chun Ka I 3+ goals

19%

Jia Hua 1+ goals

97%

Jia Hua 2+ goals

86%

Jia Hua 3+ goals

67%

Draw no bet

Tak Chun Ka I (draw refunded)

14%

Jia Hua (draw refunded)

86%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

72%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tak Chun Ka I at home — creates 1.41, concedes 3.88 · 17 matches

Jia Hua away — creates 3.32, concedes 1.60 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tak Chun Ka I attack 1.41 + Jia Hua defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.50

Jia Hua attack 3.32 + Tak Chun Ka I defence 3.88 → ÷2 → 3.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Tak Chun Ka I scores more

13%

level

13%

Jia Hua scores more

74%

Jia Hua at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Jia Hua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff