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Jia Hua vs Tak Chun Ka I — Primeira Divisão 2026

Jia Hua
Jia Hua
FT
10 – 0
Tak Chun Ka I
Tak Chun Ka I
7/14/2024Primeira DivisãoPrimeira Divisão · Relegation Round - 7Macau Olympic Complex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Jia Hua82%
×Draw10%
Tak Chun Ka I7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jia Hua
3.79
Tak Chun Ka I
1.15

Jia Hua creates 230% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 16 away

creates per match

Jia Hua
2.52
Tak Chun Ka I
1.13

allows per match

Jia Hua
1.16
Tak Chun Ka I
5.06

finishing

Jia Hua+0.00on par
Tak Chun Ka I+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jia Hua ↓

Tak Chun Ka I →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–13%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–07%
4–18%
4–24%
4–32%
4–40%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 73% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
86%14%3.5
70%30%4.5
50%50%

Double chance

Jia Hua or draw
93%
Jia Hua or Tak Chun Ka I
90%
Draw or Tak Chun Ka I
18%

Winning margin

Jia Hua wins by 2+
66%
Tak Chun Ka I wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Jia Hua 1+ goals
98%
Jia Hua 2+ goals
88%
Jia Hua 3+ goals
70%
Tak Chun Ka I 1+ goals
68%
Tak Chun Ka I 2+ goals
32%
Tak Chun Ka I 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Jia Hua (draw refunded)
92%
Tak Chun Ka I (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jia Hua at home — creates 2.52, concedes 1.16 · 25 matches

Tak Chun Ka I away — creates 1.13, concedes 5.06 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jia Hua attack 2.52 + Tak Chun Ka I defence 5.06 → ÷2 → 3.79

Tak Chun Ka I attack 1.13 + Jia Hua defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Jia Hua scores more
82%
level
10%
Tak Chun Ka I scores more
7%

Jia Hua at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Jia Hua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jia Hua vs Tak Chun Ka I

Jia Hua beat Tak Chun Ka I 10-0 in Primeira Divisão on July 14, 2024.

The match was played at Macau Olympic Complex Stadium in Taipa.