Tak Chun Ka I 0–3 CPK: Result & Stats

Tak Chun Ka I

FT

0 – 3

CPK

3/18/2023

Primeira Divisão · Round 3Canidrome

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Tak Chun Ka I5%

×Draw8%

CPK88%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tak Chun Ka IExpected goals in this matchCPK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

4.42

Tak Chun Ka I

1.08

CPK

4.42

CPK creates 309% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 29 away

1.41

creates per match

4.97

3.88

allows per match

0.76

creates per match

Tak Chun Ka I

1.41

CPK

4.97

allows per match

Tak Chun Ka I

3.88

CPK

0.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tak Chun Ka I+0.00on par

CPK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over89
Under11

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tak Chun Ka I ↓

CPK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–00%

0–12%

0–25%

0–37%

0–48%

1

1–01%

1–12%

1–25%

1–38%

1–48%

2

2–00%

2–11%

2–23%

2–34%

2–45%

3

3–00%

3–10%

3–21%

3–31%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–4 (8%) · grid covers 65% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

97%3%2.5

89%11%3.5

76%24%4.5

57%43%

Double chance

Tak Chun Ka I or draw

12%

Tak Chun Ka I or CPK

92%

Draw or CPK

95%

Winning margin

Tak Chun Ka I wins by 2+

1%

CPK wins by 2+

74%

Team goals

Tak Chun Ka I 1+ goals

66%

Tak Chun Ka I 2+ goals

29%

Tak Chun Ka I 3+ goals

10%

CPK 1+ goals

99%

CPK 2+ goals

92%

CPK 3+ goals

78%

Draw no bet

Tak Chun Ka I (draw refunded)

5%

CPK (draw refunded)

95%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tak Chun Ka I at home — creates 1.41, concedes 3.88 · 17 matches

CPK away — creates 4.97, concedes 0.76 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tak Chun Ka I attack 1.41 + CPK defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.08

CPK attack 4.97 + Tak Chun Ka I defence 3.88 → ÷2 → 4.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 88%?"

Tak Chun Ka I scores more

5%

level

8%

CPK scores more

88%

CPK at 88% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 88% does not mean "CPK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff