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CPK vs Tak Chun Ka I — Primeira Divisão 2026

CPK
CPK
FT
7 – 1
Tak Chun Ka I
Tak Chun Ka I
6/4/2023Primeira DivisãoPrimeira Divisão · Round 12Macau Olympic Complex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

CPK93%
×Draw5%
Tak Chun Ka I2%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CPK
4.82
Tak Chun Ka I
0.77

CPK creates 526% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 16 away

creates per match

CPK
4.59
Tak Chun Ka I
1.13

allows per match

CPK
0.41
Tak Chun Ka I
5.06

finishing

CPK+0.00on par
Tak Chun Ka I+0.00on par

Total goals

89%Over
  • Over89
  • Under11

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CPK ↓

Tak Chun Ka I →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–10%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–12%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–14%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–011%
4–18%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 4–0 (11%) · grid covers 60% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
89%11%3.5
76%24%4.5
56%44%

Double chance

CPK or draw
98%
CPK or Tak Chun Ka I
95%
Draw or Tak Chun Ka I
7%

Winning margin

CPK wins by 2+
83%
Tak Chun Ka I wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

CPK 1+ goals
99%
CPK 2+ goals
94%
CPK 3+ goals
82%
Tak Chun Ka I 1+ goals
54%
Tak Chun Ka I 2+ goals
18%
Tak Chun Ka I 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

CPK (draw refunded)
98%
Tak Chun Ka I (draw refunded)
2%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CPK at home — creates 4.59, concedes 0.41 · 37 matches

Tak Chun Ka I away — creates 1.13, concedes 5.06 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CPK attack 4.59 + Tak Chun Ka I defence 5.06 → ÷2 → 4.82

Tak Chun Ka I attack 1.13 + CPK defence 0.41 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 93%?"

CPK scores more
93%
level
5%
Tak Chun Ka I scores more
2%

CPK at 93% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 93% does not mean "CPK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CPK vs Tak Chun Ka I

CPK beat Tak Chun Ka I 7-1 in Primeira Divisão on June 4, 2023.

The match was played at Macau Olympic Complex Stadium in Taipa.