Tak Chun Ka I 1–4 Benfica: Result & Stats

Tak Chun Ka I

FT

1 – 4

Benfica

4/1/2023

Primeira Divisão · Round 5Canidrome

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Tak Chun Ka I16%

×Draw15%

Benfica68%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tak Chun Ka IExpected goals in this matchBenfica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

3.13

Tak Chun Ka I

1.53

Benfica

3.13

Benfica creates 105% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 32 away

1.41

creates per match

2.38

3.88

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Tak Chun Ka I

1.41

Benfica

2.38

allows per match

Tak Chun Ka I

3.88

Benfica

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tak Chun Ka I+0.00on par

Benfica+0.00on par

Total goals

Over84
Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tak Chun Ka I ↓

Benfica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–25%

0–35%

0–44%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–27%

1–38%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–14%

2–26%

2–36%

2–45%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

84%16%3.5

67%33%4.5

48%52%

Double chance

Tak Chun Ka I or draw

32%

Tak Chun Ka I or Benfica

85%

Draw or Benfica

84%

Winning margin

Tak Chun Ka I wins by 2+

7%

Benfica wins by 2+

49%

Team goals

Tak Chun Ka I 1+ goals

78%

Tak Chun Ka I 2+ goals

45%

Tak Chun Ka I 3+ goals

20%

Benfica 1+ goals

95%

Benfica 2+ goals

81%

Benfica 3+ goals

59%

Draw no bet

Tak Chun Ka I (draw refunded)

19%

Benfica (draw refunded)

81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tak Chun Ka I at home — creates 1.41, concedes 3.88 · 17 matches

Benfica away — creates 2.38, concedes 1.66 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tak Chun Ka I attack 1.41 + Benfica defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.53

Benfica attack 2.38 + Tak Chun Ka I defence 3.88 → ÷2 → 3.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Tak Chun Ka I scores more

16%

level

15%

Benfica scores more

68%

Benfica at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Benfica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff