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Benfica vs Tak Chun Ka I — Primeira Divisão 2026

Benfica
Benfica
FT
8 – 0
Tak Chun Ka I
Tak Chun Ka I
2/22/2024Primeira DivisãoPrimeira Divisão · Round 1Canidrome

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Benfica85%
×Draw9%
Tak Chun Ka I6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Benfica
4.22
Tak Chun Ka I
1.19

Benfica creates 255% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 16 away

creates per match

Benfica
3.39
Tak Chun Ka I
1.13

allows per match

Benfica
1.24
Tak Chun Ka I
5.06

finishing

Benfica+0.00on par
Tak Chun Ka I+0.00on par

Total goals

89%Over
  • Over89
  • Under11

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benfica ↓

Tak Chun Ka I →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–13%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–05%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–07%
4–18%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 67% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
97%3%2.5
89%11%3.5
75%25%4.5
57%43%

Double chance

Benfica or draw
94%
Benfica or Tak Chun Ka I
91%
Draw or Tak Chun Ka I
15%

Winning margin

Benfica wins by 2+
70%
Tak Chun Ka I wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Benfica 1+ goals
98%
Benfica 2+ goals
91%
Benfica 3+ goals
76%
Tak Chun Ka I 1+ goals
70%
Tak Chun Ka I 2+ goals
33%
Tak Chun Ka I 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Benfica (draw refunded)
93%
Tak Chun Ka I (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benfica at home — creates 3.39, concedes 1.24 · 33 matches

Tak Chun Ka I away — creates 1.13, concedes 5.06 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benfica attack 3.39 + Tak Chun Ka I defence 5.06 → ÷2 → 4.22

Tak Chun Ka I attack 1.13 + Benfica defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 85%?"

Benfica scores more
85%
level
9%
Tak Chun Ka I scores more
6%

Benfica at 85% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 85% does not mean "Benfica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Benfica vs Tak Chun Ka I

Benfica beat Tak Chun Ka I 8-0 in Primeira Divisão on February 22, 2024.

The match was played at Canidrome in Macau.