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Tajikistan vs Lebanon — Asian Cup 2019

Tajikistan
Tajikistan
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Lebanon
Lebanon
1/22/2024Asian CupAsian Cup · Group Stage - 3Jassim Bin Hamad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Tajikistan57%
×Draw26%
Lebanon17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tajikistan
1.50
Lebanon
0.67

Tajikistan creates 124% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Tajikistan
0.67
Lebanon
0.33

allows per match

Tajikistan
1.00
Lebanon
2.33

finishing

Tajikistan+0.00on par
Lebanon+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tajikistan ↓

Lebanon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Tajikistan or draw
83%
Tajikistan or Lebanon
74%
Draw or Lebanon
43%

Winning margin

Tajikistan wins by 2+
30%
Lebanon wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Tajikistan 1+ goals
78%
Tajikistan 2+ goals
44%
Tajikistan 3+ goals
19%
Lebanon 1+ goals
49%
Lebanon 2+ goals
15%
Lebanon 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Tajikistan (draw refunded)
78%
Lebanon (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tajikistan at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Lebanon away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tajikistan attack 0.67 + Lebanon defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.50

Lebanon attack 0.33 + Tajikistan defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Tajikistan scores more
57%
level
26%
Lebanon scores more
17%

Tajikistan at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Tajikistan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Asian Cup: Tajikistan 2–1 Lebanon

Tajikistan beat Lebanon 2-1 in Asian Cup on January 22, 2024.

The match was played at Jassim Bin Hamad Stadium in Doha.