Lebanon 1–0 Tajikistan: Result & Stats | Friendlies

Lebanon

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Tajikistan

9/4/2024

Friendlies · Friendlies 3Bukit Jalil National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Lebanon52%

×Draw27%

Tajikistan21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LebanonExpected goals in this matchTajikistan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.81

Lebanon

1.46

Tajikistan

0.81

Lebanon creates 80% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 19 away

1.50

creates per match

0.63

1.00

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Lebanon

1.50

Tajikistan

0.63

allows per match

Lebanon

1.00

Tajikistan

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lebanon+0.00on par

Tajikistan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lebanon ↓

Tajikistan →

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Lebanon or draw

79%

Lebanon or Tajikistan

73%

Draw or Tajikistan

48%

Winning margin

Lebanon wins by 2+

26%

Tajikistan wins by 2+

Team goals

Lebanon 1+ goals

77%

Lebanon 2+ goals

43%

Lebanon 3+ goals

18%

Tajikistan 1+ goals

56%

Tajikistan 2+ goals

19%

Tajikistan 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Lebanon (draw refunded)

72%

Tajikistan (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Lebanon at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Tajikistan away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.42 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Lebanon attack 1.50 + Tajikistan defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.46

Tajikistan attack 0.63 + Lebanon defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 52%?"

Lebanon scores more

52%

level

27%

Tajikistan scores more

21%

Lebanon at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Lebanon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff