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Taizhou Yuanda vs Suzhou Dongwu — League One 2018

Taizhou Yuanda
Taizhou Yuanda
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Suzhou Dongwu
Suzhou Dongwu
9/13/2020League OneLeague One · Round 1Chengdu Longquanyi Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Taizhou Yuanda35%
×Draw27%
Suzhou Dongwu37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Taizhou Yuanda
1.19
Suzhou Dongwu
1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 93 away

creates per match

Taizhou Yuanda
1.00
Suzhou Dongwu
1.10

allows per match

Taizhou Yuanda
1.38
Suzhou Dongwu
1.38

finishing

Taizhou Yuanda+0.00on par
Suzhou Dongwu+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Taizhou Yuanda ↓

Suzhou Dongwu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Taizhou Yuanda or draw
63%
Taizhou Yuanda or Suzhou Dongwu
73%
Draw or Suzhou Dongwu
65%

Winning margin

Taizhou Yuanda wins by 2+
15%
Suzhou Dongwu wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Taizhou Yuanda 1+ goals
70%
Taizhou Yuanda 2+ goals
33%
Taizhou Yuanda 3+ goals
12%
Suzhou Dongwu 1+ goals
71%
Suzhou Dongwu 2+ goals
35%
Suzhou Dongwu 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Taizhou Yuanda (draw refunded)
48%
Suzhou Dongwu (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Taizhou Yuanda at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

Suzhou Dongwu away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.38 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Taizhou Yuanda attack 1.00 + Suzhou Dongwu defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.19

Suzhou Dongwu attack 1.10 + Taizhou Yuanda defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Taizhou Yuanda scores more
35%
level
27%
Suzhou Dongwu scores more
37%

Suzhou Dongwu at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Suzhou Dongwu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Taizhou Yuanda 1–0 Suzhou Dongwu

Taizhou Yuanda beat Suzhou Dongwu 1-0 in League One on September 13, 2020.

The match was played at Chengdu Longquanyi Football Stadium in Chengdu.