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Suzhou Dongwu vs Taizhou Yuanda — League One 2018

Suzhou Dongwu
Suzhou Dongwu
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Taizhou Yuanda
Taizhou Yuanda
10/1/2020League OneLeague One · Round 6Dujiangyan Phoenix Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Suzhou Dongwu35%
×Draw29%
Taizhou Yuanda36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Suzhou Dongwu
1.09
Taizhou Yuanda
1.12

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 94 home / 7 away

creates per match

Suzhou Dongwu
1.04
Taizhou Yuanda
1.14

allows per match

Suzhou Dongwu
1.10
Taizhou Yuanda
1.14

finishing

Suzhou Dongwu+0.00on par
Taizhou Yuanda+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Suzhou Dongwu ↓

Taizhou Yuanda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Suzhou Dongwu or draw
64%
Suzhou Dongwu or Taizhou Yuanda
71%
Draw or Taizhou Yuanda
65%

Winning margin

Suzhou Dongwu wins by 2+
14%
Taizhou Yuanda wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Suzhou Dongwu 1+ goals
66%
Suzhou Dongwu 2+ goals
30%
Suzhou Dongwu 3+ goals
10%
Taizhou Yuanda 1+ goals
67%
Taizhou Yuanda 2+ goals
31%
Taizhou Yuanda 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Suzhou Dongwu (draw refunded)
49%
Taizhou Yuanda (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Suzhou Dongwu at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.10 · 94 matches

Taizhou Yuanda away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Suzhou Dongwu attack 1.04 + Taizhou Yuanda defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.09

Taizhou Yuanda attack 1.14 + Suzhou Dongwu defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Suzhou Dongwu scores more
35%
level
29%
Taizhou Yuanda scores more
36%

Taizhou Yuanda at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Taizhou Yuanda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Suzhou Dongwu 2–1 Taizhou Yuanda

Suzhou Dongwu beat Taizhou Yuanda 2-1 in League One on October 1, 2020.

The match was played at Dujiangyan Phoenix Stadium in Dujiangyan.