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Taizhou Yuanda vs Beijing Renhe — League One 2018

Taizhou Yuanda
Taizhou Yuanda
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Beijing Renhe
Beijing Renhe
9/26/2020League OneLeague One · Round 5Dujiangyan Phoenix Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Taizhou Yuanda39%
×Draw28%
Beijing Renhe32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Taizhou Yuanda
1.22
Beijing Renhe
1.08

Taizhou Yuanda creates 13% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

creates per match

Taizhou Yuanda
1.00
Beijing Renhe
0.78

allows per match

Taizhou Yuanda
1.38
Beijing Renhe
1.44

finishing

Taizhou Yuanda+0.00on par
Beijing Renhe+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Taizhou Yuanda ↓

Beijing Renhe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Taizhou Yuanda or draw
68%
Taizhou Yuanda or Beijing Renhe
72%
Draw or Beijing Renhe
61%

Winning margin

Taizhou Yuanda wins by 2+
17%
Beijing Renhe wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Taizhou Yuanda 1+ goals
70%
Taizhou Yuanda 2+ goals
34%
Taizhou Yuanda 3+ goals
12%
Beijing Renhe 1+ goals
66%
Beijing Renhe 2+ goals
29%
Beijing Renhe 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Taizhou Yuanda (draw refunded)
55%
Beijing Renhe (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Taizhou Yuanda at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

Beijing Renhe away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Taizhou Yuanda attack 1.00 + Beijing Renhe defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.22

Beijing Renhe attack 0.78 + Taizhou Yuanda defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Taizhou Yuanda scores more
39%
level
28%
Beijing Renhe scores more
32%

Taizhou Yuanda at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Taizhou Yuanda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Taizhou Yuanda 1–0 Beijing Renhe

Taizhou Yuanda beat Beijing Renhe 1-0 in League One on September 26, 2020.

The match was played at Dujiangyan Phoenix Stadium in Dujiangyan.